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Atalanta host Athletic Club on Wednesday evening, January 21, 2026, in a crucial Champions League encounter at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. The home side sit seventh in Serie A with 32 points from 21 matches under Raffaele Palladino, while the Basque visitors occupy eighth place in La Liga under Ernesto Valverde with 24 points from 19 games. With both teams chasing European ambitions, this first-ever meeting between the clubs promises high stakes.
Atalanta enter this fixture riding strong momentum despite a minor stumble. They won three consecutive Serie A matches before drawing 1-1 with Pisa on Friday in what Palladino described as his first draw in 13 games as coach. The Italian side defeated Roma 1-0 on January 3, beat Bologna 2-0 on January 7, and overcame Torino 2-0 on January 10. Palladino will be without suspended trio Isak Hien, Ederson, and Yunus Musah, while Ademola Lookman remains at AFCON with Nigeria. Mitchel Bakker and Raoul Bellanova are sidelined with injuries, though Odilon Kossounou has returned after Ivory Coast's tournament exit.
Athletic Club arrive in Italy with inconsistent form after a turbulent January. They drew 1-1 with Osasuna on January 3, suffered a heavy 5-0 Super Cup defeat to Barcelona on January 7, edged Cultural Leonesa 4-3 in the Copa del Rey on January 13, then lost 3-2 to Mallorca on Saturday. Valverde faces significant injury concerns with Mikel Vesga, Aymeric Laporte, M. Sannadi, and Yuri all expected to return late this month. Beñat Prados and U. Egiluz remain out with cruciate ligament injuries, while Yeray is suspended for this fixture.
Atalanta's high-intensity pressing and rapid transitions under Palladino have created numerous scoring opportunities throughout the season. The home side has conceded just six goals in their last six Serie A matches, showcasing defensive solidity to complement their attacking threat. Athletic Club will need to manage the absence of key defenders while containing Atalanta's transition game in hostile territory.
These two clubs have never met in competitive action, making Wednesday's Champions League clash historic for both. The New Balance Arena will witness the first chapter of what could become a memorable European rivalry between Italy's rising force and Spain's traditional Basque powerhouse.
My model backs Atalanta to Win at 17/20 (1.85 decimal) with a 56.80% probability. The predicted scoreline is Atalanta 2-1, supported by expected goals of 1.99 for the hosts and 1.10 for the visitors. Athletic's defensive injuries and recent road struggles make them vulnerable against an Atalanta side averaging 2.0 goals in their last three home wins. The 0.89 xG gap reflects Atalanta's superior attacking threat and home advantage.
