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Audace Cerignola come into this Serie C Group C meeting with the stronger home profile, having taken 29 points from 17 league matches at their own ground. They have won eight at home and lost only four, while Latina’s away record remains a concern with just two wins, seven draws and eight defeats on the road. That split alone gives the home side a clear edge for a straight home win.
Recent results also lean that way. Audace Cerignola have won three of their last six league games and were only undone by Crotone away in a match where they conceded three. Latina, by contrast, have managed only one league win in their last four league outings and have lost three of those, including the 1-0 defeat to Catania on 28 March.
There is enough goal activity to keep Latina involved, which is the main reason this is not a completely comfortable home call. Audace Cerignola have been involved in a run of high-scoring games, while the xG projection is only 1.3 to 1.0 in their favour, suggesting a tight contest rather than a runaway. Still, Latina’s away record of 14 goals scored and 27 conceded points more toward their struggle to control games than toward a strong upset case.
The head-to-head record is also useful here: Audace Cerignola have three wins and no losses in the last six meetings, and they have kept three clean sheets in that span. Latina have failed to keep a clean sheet in all six of those meetings, which fits the idea of the home side finding enough to edge it even if the match is not dominant.
My prediction is Home Win at 9/10. Audace Cerignola have the better home numbers, Latina have only two away wins all season, and the head-to-head trend has strongly favoured Cerignola with three wins and no defeats in the last six. Latina’s recent league form on the road has also been poor, so a narrow home victory is the most likely outcome despite the modest xG gap.
