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Aurora Pro Patria come into this on an eight-match wait for a win, with three straight defeats and only one goal scored in each of their last two league games. At home they have picked up just two wins all season and have conceded 34 goals in 17 matches, so they rarely look secure enough to turn tight games into three points.
Triestina’s away numbers are still poor overall, but they arrive with a sharper attacking edge than their hosts. They have won their most recent match 5-0 against Virtus Verona, and that followed a 2-2 draw at Trento, so the scoring has been there even if consistency has not. Their away record is only one win from 17, yet the 7-26 goals split on the road is better than Aurora Pro Patria’s home defensive return.
The recent head-to-head also leans toward Triestina, who have avoided defeat in three straight meetings with Aurora Pro Patria. Those games have often been close, including a 2-1 away win in November 2025 and a 1-0 home win in March 2025, which fits the idea of a narrow away success rather than a runaway result. Even so, the projected 1-2 scoreline suggests a competitive match rather than a comfortable one.
Aurora Pro Patria have failed to keep a clean sheet in four straight, and that matters against a Triestina side that has scored in three of their last four league matches. The xG line is also in Triestina’s favour at 1.4 to 1.1, which is enough to support the visitors if they can carry any of the sharpness from the 5-0 win into another away fixture. The main concern is Triestina’s weak away record, so this is not a banker, but the balance of recent output still points their way.
My prediction is Away Win at 23/20. Triestina have the better recent attacking return, they won their last league match 5-0, and Aurora Pro Patria are eight games without a win. The hosts have also gone four straight without a clean sheet, while Triestina have avoided defeat in three consecutive head-to-head meetings with them.
