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Bari come into this one with one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six league matches, and the concern is not just the results but the goals against, with three conceded in the 0-3 home loss to Carrarese and two or more let in on several recent occasions. Modena have been steadier, winning four of their last six and taking maximum points from the 2-1 against Mantova and the 3-0 against Spezia, which fits a side arriving with more momentum.
The table also points in Modena’s direction: they sit sixth with 50 points, while Bari are 17th on 31. At home Bari have collected only 20 points from 16 matches and have a 18-21 goal return, so they have not turned their own ground into much of a safety net. Modena’s away record is healthier, with six wins, four draws and four defeats and only 11 goals conceded on the road.
The head-to-head record gives Modena another small edge, especially since Bari have not kept a clean sheet in ten straight meetings between the sides. That does not guarantee a comfortable away afternoon, though, because these fixtures have often been open and the most recent meeting ended 3-0 to Modena. Bari’s recent home defeats also show they can be punished when they lose control of games.
The xG numbers lean the same way, with Bari projected at 1.0 and Modena at 1.4, a margin that is not huge but still supports the visitors. Modena’s last win against Mantova was not especially dominant on xG, so this is not a case for heavy confidence, yet their stronger league position, better away return and more reliable recent results are enough to favour them.
My prediction is Away Win at 81/100. Modena have won four of their last six, they have six away wins already this season, and Bari have lost four of their last six while sitting 17th in the table. The head-to-head also tilts their way, with Modena unbeaten in six against Bari and winning the most recent meeting 3-0.
