BFC Preussen Berlin come into Sunday’s home game on the back of two straight wins and four matches unbeaten, with that spell including seven goals scored and only two conceded. Their home record is solid too, with five wins, three draws and three defeats, while Greifswalder FC have won only three of their 13 away league games and have already shipped 21 goals on the road. That combination points more toward a home result than a cautious stalemate.
Greifswalder’s away numbers are the weaker side of the argument for them, and their recent form has been patchy: one win, one draw and four losses across their last six league matches. They also lost 1-3 at home to 1. FC Magdeburg II on 25 March, so the defensive side has not been holding up well. BFC, by contrast, have scored in each of their last six league games and have not been short of chances in front of goal.
The goal trends are not one-sided enough to make this a simple shutout call. BFC have been involved in five straight league games where both teams scored, and the reverse fixture finished 1-1 in October 2025. Even so, BFC’s stronger home output and Greifswalder’s poor away concession rate leave the home side with the clearer edge to take the points.
There is a small tension with the projected 2-1 scoreline, because Greifswalder have shown enough away from home to nick a goal now and then, and BFC are not exactly a lock for clean sheets. But the bigger picture still favours Daniel Volbert’s team: they have the better home record, the better recent form, and they have scored first in four of their last five league matches.
My prediction is Home Win at 21/20. BFC Preussen Berlin have won their last two league games and are unbeaten in four, while Greifswalder FC have lost four of their last six. BFC’s home record is stronger than Greifswalder’s away record, and the visitors have conceded 21 goals in 13 away matches. The 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture is a reminder that this is not a banker, but the home side still have the sharper profile for this market.
