Prediction (no JavaScript):

Botev Plovdiv look well placed for the safety side of a 1X bet, and their recent scorelines also lean toward a controlled total. They have taken three wins, two draws and one defeat from their last six league matches, with only one of those six going above 3.5 goals. The home side have also avoided defeat in five of those six games, which is the first part this market needs.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv bring a decent counter-case because they are three matches unbeaten and have won their last three league games by single-goal margins. That still fits the under 3.5 side well: their last four league matches have all stayed at two goals or fewer. Their away record is also draw-heavy rather than dominant, with seven draws in 13 away league matches, which helps the Botev side of the double chance.

The recent derby meetings have usually been tight. Seven of the last eight head-to-head games finished with fewer than 2.5 goals, including a 1-1 league draw in November 2025 and a 0-0 draw in November 2023. That is a useful pointer for the under 3.5 leg, and it also suggests margins are often fine rather than one side running away with it.

Botev’s latest match on 4 April was the standout exception, a 5-0 home win over Spartak Varna, but that came against ten men after a 44th-minute red card and looks too inflated to treat as the baseline for total goals here. Outside that result, Botev had scored only three goals across their previous five league games combined. The xG projection of 1.5 to 1.1 points more toward a narrow game than a high-scoring one, even if it leaves some tension on the 1X side because Lokomotiv have been collecting wins.

My prediction is Double Chance 1X & Under 3.5 at 1.53. Botev have lost only one of their last six league matches, Lokomotiv have drawn seven of 13 away league games, Lokomotiv’s last four league matches have all gone under 3.5 goals, and the projected 1-0 score is fully aligned with this market.