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Carrarese arrive in decent touch, with three wins and two draws from their last six league games and no defeat in their last three. The recent 3-0 away win over Bari also underlined that they can contribute strongly to the scoreline, rather than relying on narrow, low-event games.
Spezia’s form is less convincing, with just one win in their last six and no victory in their last three. They have also gone eight matches without a clean sheet, so their away record of nine defeats in 16 trips carries a real risk of conceding again on Monday evening.
The recent patterns lean toward goals rather than a tight contest. Carrarese have seen over 1.5 goals in enough of their home games to keep this line healthy, while Spezia have been involved in four matches with over 2.5 goals in their last five and both teams have scored in four of those five. Even if the 2-1 projected score feels a little more ambitious than a simple safety line, it still sits comfortably above this threshold.
Carrarese’s home numbers also help here, with 21 goals scored and 14 conceded in 16 league games at home. Spezia’s away return of 16 scored and 25 conceded points in the same direction, and the pair’s meeting in August 2025 finished 2-0 to Carrarese, another reminder that this fixture can clear a modest goals line without needing a shootout.
My prediction is Over 1.5 Goals at 1/4. Carrarese have scored in recent wins, Spezia have gone eight games without a clean sheet, and the visitors’ away record of 16 goals scored and 25 conceded leaves room for at least two goals. Their recent matches have also been open enough, with Spezia involved in multiple high-scoring games and both teams scoring in four of their last five.
