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CD Mafra come into this on six league games without a win, and the home defeat to C.F. Os Belenenses was another reminder that they are conceding too often. They have now gone six straight matches without keeping a clean sheet, and that matters here because a home win is easier to back when the favourite can at least protect its own box.
UD Santarém are not arriving with much momentum either. They have lost three of their last four league matches, and their trip to Varzim SC ended in a 1-0 defeat after a stoppage-time penalty, with Manu sent off late on. That sort of away performance leaves them vulnerable if Mafra can start more positively this time.
The recent head-to-head also leans toward Mafra having the edge at home. The teams drew 0-0 in Mafra on 16 January, but CD Mafra won 2-1 away on 26 October and have already beaten Santarém 3-1 in this promotion round. That earlier meeting suggests there is a path for the hosts to find enough goals, even if the 1.2 xG projection is not overwhelming.
The goals picture is not spotless for a home win call. Mafra’s defensive run is poor, Santarém have scored in enough recent games to stay dangerous, and the projected 2-1 scoreline reflects the possibility of both sides getting chances. Still, Santarém’s run of eight straight matches without a clean sheet gives Mafra a useful opening if they can turn pressure into an early lead.
My prediction is Home Win at 5/6. CD Mafra are unbeaten in none of their last six league games, but they have already beaten Santarém 3-1 in this round and 2-1 in the wider head-to-head. Santarém have lost three of their last four, and their away defeat at Varzim came with a late red card and very little attacking output. On top of that, Mafra’s need for a response at home is stronger than Santarém’s case on the road.
