CD Trofense come into this promotion-round meeting having lost five of their last six, and their home record is only three wins from nine, with just 11 goals scored at home. They have also gone six straight league games without a clean sheet, so even when they compete well enough to score, they are still leaving openings at the back.
C.F. Os Belenenses arrive in stronger attacking form, with four wins from their last six and three straight league matches without defeat. They have scored 14 goals across those six outings, including a 4-1 away win at CD Mafra on 22 March and a 3-2 home success over Varzim SC, which points to a side carrying more punch than Trofense right now.
The head-to-head record also leans toward the visitors being awkward for Trofense to contain. The reverse fixture in February finished 0-0, but Belenenses were the more positive side in the longer view with a 3-0 cup win in 2024, and their recent scoring run suggests they are better placed to turn a tight matchup into an away result this time.
CD Trofense’s 1.0 xG projection is modest against a Belenenses estimate of 1.5, which fits the idea of the visitors doing enough to edge the game. Trofense’s lack of clean sheets is a concern for a side that has already conceded in six in a row, while Belenenses have also been first to score in five of their last six league matches, a useful edge in a match that may still be close.
My prediction is Away Win at 5/4. Belenenses have won four of their last six league games, they are unbeaten in three, and they have scored freely on the road with a 4-1 win at CD Mafra. Trofense, meanwhile, have lost five of their last six and have not kept a clean sheet in six straight league matches, so the visitors look better placed to take the points despite the 1-0-0-1 type of margin the xG points to.
