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Cobh Ramblers come into this one with a mixed but generally useful run, having won away at Kerry FC on 3 April after draws against Bray Wanderers, Cork City and Finn Harps earlier in the spring. Their home record is less convincing, though, with no wins from four at this ground and only three goals scored in those games, so they still need to show a little more authority in front of their own crowd.
Treaty United have been hard to trust on their travels, and that is the main reason the home side appeals here. They are winless in four away league matches, picking up just one point and conceding eight goals in that spell, while their overall away split reads 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats. A 0-0 home draw with Longford Town on 3 April was a decent defensive response, but it also extended a sequence in which they have gone two games without a win.
The scoring profile points more towards Cobh than a cagey stalemate. Cobh have gone eight league games without a clean sheet, so Treaty should get some chances, but Cobh’s own home figures and recent 2-1 win at Kerry suggest they are capable of doing enough at the other end. The xG numbers also lean that way, with Cobh projected at 1.4 and Treaty at 0.8, which fits a narrow home success rather than a comfortable one.
There is some tension with the head-to-head because the sides drew 0-0 in a friendly in February and also met in a 1-1 league draw in October, but the more relevant league evidence still favours the hosts. Cobh have been beaten only once in their last four league outings, while Treaty have taken just one point from four away league fixtures and have not yet won on the road.
My prediction is Home Win at 95/100. Cobh’s away win at Kerry came after a run of home draws, and their home record still looks stronger than Treaty’s travel form. Treaty have failed to win any away league game this season, and they have already conceded eight goals in four on the road. The xG split also gives Cobh the edge, even if the 2-1 scoreline would likely be fairly tight rather than dominant.
