Everton welcome Liverpool to Goodison Park on Sunday afternoon in a Premier League derby that carries a lot more than local pride. David Moyes’ side are sitting 10th with 47 points, close enough to the top half to keep an eye on it, but not quite secure enough to relax. Liverpool arrive in fifth on 52 points, still chasing a stronger finish and trying to steady themselves after a rough few weeks across multiple competitions. For both clubs, this one matters. A lot.
There’s also the usual derby edge, and that tends to flatten form lines a little. Everton have had enough good moments lately to believe they can make this messy. Liverpool, for all their quality, have been leaking results away from home and come into this off the back of a Champions League defeat to Paris Saint-Germain. You don’t need much more than that to expect tension, noise and a game that probably won’t be settled quickly.
The wider context is simple enough. Everton are looking to keep pushing up the table and make the second half of the season count. Liverpool still have plenty to play for in league terms, but their away record and current rhythm are not the sort that inspire total confidence. Goodison derbies often do their own thing anyway. This one feels especially live.
Everton Form & Analysis
Everton’s last six league matches have been a proper mixed bag, but there’s a sense of resilience building underneath the surface. They went to Brentford on 11 April and came away with a 2-2 draw after falling behind early, then finding a way back through Beto before being pegged back again late on. That followed a tidy 3-0 home win over Chelsea on 21 March, which remains their clearest statement result of the run. Before that, they lost 2-0 away to Arsenal, though that’s hardly a disgrace, and beat Burnley 2-0 at home. There was also that eye-catching 3-2 win at Newcastle United, a game that showed they can travel with a bit of bite. The only real blot before all that was a 1-0 home defeat to Manchester United.
That sequence tells you quite a lot about Everton under Moyes. They’re not a team flooding games with chances, but they’re awkward to play against and capable of landing a punch when momentum flips their way. At home this season, they’ve been solid rather than spectacular: six wins, four draws and six defeats, with 21 scored and 19 conceded at Goodison. That’s not the profile of a side you’d trust blindly, but it is the profile of a team that usually stays in games. They don’t give away much here. Not much at all.
The bigger point is that Everton have been competitive in almost every recent outing. Their away draw at Brentford came with 1.54 xG and seven shots on target, which suggests they can create enough to trouble Liverpool too, especially at home. The defensive side still has its fragile moments — Brentford had 17 shots and four big chances — yet Everton’s scoring streak across the recent run matters. They’ve scored in enough matches to keep the pressure on, and when they’ve got the crowd with them, they’ve looked capable of making opponents uncomfortable. This won’t be a free hit for Liverpool.
Liverpool Form & Analysis
Liverpool’s recent form has a far shakier feel to it. Their only league win in the last few matches came against Fulham at Anfield on 11 April, a 2-0 result that briefly settled things. Before that, though, they were beaten 2-1 at Brighton in the league, then thumped 4-0 by Manchester City in the FA Cup, and the Champions League has brought its own problems. They lost 2-0 away to Paris Saint-Germain on 8 April before a 0-2 home defeat to the same opponents three days ago, and in between there was a bright 4-0 win over Galatasaray. That’s the story of Liverpool right now: flashes of power, then sudden drops in control.
Arne Slot’s side still carry more attacking threat than Everton on paper, with 52 league goals compared with Everton’s 39, but the away record is the concern. Liverpool are ninth in the away table with six wins, three draws and seven defeats, plus 23 scored and 25 conceded on their travels. That’s too loose for a team trying to chase the top places. They’ve been vulnerable first, too, conceding early in four of their last five by the numbers available. In a derby away from home, that’s not ideal. That’s a problem.
Still, Liverpool don’t lack the ability to score in this fixture. Their away league games tend to produce chances, and their overall numbers are decent enough: they average more goals per game than Everton and create enough openings to hurt most opponents. The issue is balance. They can dominate spells and still leave the back door open. The 1.97 xG they posted in the home loss to PSG shows the attacking ideas are there, but if you’re allowing a strong side to create 1.09 xG at Anfield and still losing 2-0, the margins are off. At Goodison, that kind of looseness can get punished quickly.
Head-to-Head
Recent derby history leans Liverpool’s way, but not overwhelmingly. The sides drew 2-2 at Goodison in February 2025, and Everton actually won the derby 2-0 at home in April 2024. Liverpool have had the upper hand in the more recent meetings overall, winning 2-1 at Anfield in September 2025 and 1-0 there in April 2025. Before that, though, the fixture has often been tight and low-scoring, which fits the mood of the derby rather well.
One pattern stands out. Everton haven’t kept a clean sheet in three straight meetings with Liverpool, and six of the last eight derby clashes have finished with under 2.5 goals. That’s the sort of history that nudges you towards a cautious read rather than a wild one. These games rarely open up for long. Not usually.
We Predict: Both Teams To Score
We’re backing Both Teams To Score at 8/11 for this derby, and it’s the cleanest angle on the board. Everton have scored in enough of their recent matches to trust them to land a blow, especially at home, while Liverpool’s away record and recent defensive wobble make a clean sheet feel unlikely. The 1.4 xG projection for both sides lines up neatly with that view. A 1-1 draw looks the likeliest outcome.
Liverpool should still create chances, because they usually do, and Everton haven’t exactly been bulletproof. But the visitors’ away numbers are patchy, and this fixture has enough derby chaos to stop either side feeling safe. If you want a secondary angle, under 3.5 goals is live too, though BTTS is the sharper play. This should be tense, competitive and just open enough at both ends.
