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FSV Schoningen 2011 arrive with only one win in their last six league matches, and that came in a 5-0 away result at FC St Pauli II U23. Since then they have gone three games without a win, and their home form is particularly weak with just three victories, no draws and seven defeats in 10 league games at home. They have also conceded in three straight matches, which is a poor sign against a Meppen side that usually finds chances on the road.
SV Meppen, by contrast, have won five of their last six and are unbeaten in 14 league matches overall. Their away record is strong too, with nine wins, three draws and only one defeat from 13 away league games, plus 38 goals scored in those trips. They have also been first to score in five of their last six, which matters here because an early Meppen goal would put Schoningen under immediate pressure to chase the game.
The goal patterns also point towards the visitors. Schoningen have gone over 2.5 goals in seven straight league matches, while Meppen have landed over 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine. The earlier meeting between these teams finished 5-1 to Meppen, and that is the one H2H reference that fits the current picture well. A repeat of that level of scoring is not guaranteed, but with Schoningen conceding 58 league goals already and Meppen averaging 2.6 xG in the projection, the visitors should have enough quality to do most of the damage.
There is a small tension in the numbers because Schoningen’s recent home matches have been chaotic rather than one-sided, with 14 goals conceded in 10 league home games and a 2-2 draw away at Hamburger SV II U23 just days ago. Still, Meppen’s away record and their current unbeaten run are much stronger indicators for the away side than any comfort Schoningen might take from occasional scoring bursts. The 1-3 correct score also fits the idea of Meppen controlling the game without necessarily keeping it completely clean.
My prediction is Away Win at 1/3. Meppen have won five of their last six league matches and are unbeaten in 14, while Schoningen are winless in three and have lost seven of their 10 home league games. The visitors also own the best away record in the division, with nine away wins and only one defeat, and they beat Schoningen 5-1 in the earlier meeting.
