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Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta come into this on the back of a narrow 1-0 home loss to Central Norte de Salta, a game that featured just one goal, 0.58 expected goals for them and no big chances. That fits a pattern of tight home matches, with only three goals across their last two at home in the league and a 0-0 draw against Temperley among their recent results.
San Martín de San Juan were held 0-0 by Racing de Córdoba in their most recent outing, after a 1-1 draw with San Martín de Tucumán, so they have drawn two of their last three league games. Their last two away league matches also finished with only three total goals combined, and they have failed to score in one of those trips.
The broader goal numbers point the same way. San Martín de San Juan have seen under 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches, while Gimnasia y Tiro have produced only one goal in each of their last two league fixtures and did not score at all in their latest home game. Even if the projected scoreline is 1-1, the balance of recent chance creation is modest, with the xG projection at 1.1 for Gimnasia and 0.5 for San Martín.
There is also little in the head-to-head to push this toward both teams scoring, as the only listed meeting ended 2-1 to San Martín de San Juan in November 2024. Since then, Gimnasia have gone three games without a win and San Martín are four league matches without a victory, which keeps the contest cautious rather than open.
My prediction is BTTS - No at 11/25. San Martín de San Juan have gone under 2.5 goals in four of their last five, Gimnasia y Tiro have just one goal in each of their last two league matches, and both sides arrive off low-scoring recent outings. The away side’s 0-0 with Racing de Córdoba and Gimnasia’s 0-1 loss to Central Norte both point to another match where one attack may fail to land.
