Heracles Almelo welcome Ajax to the Erve Asito on Saturday evening with the table squeezing both clubs from very different directions. For Heracles, this is survival football now, plain and simple. They go into the weekend bottom of the Eredivisie in 18th place with only 19 points from 29 matches, and a goal difference of 34 scored, 74 conceded tells you why they’re down there. Ajax, by contrast, sit fifth on 48 points and are hunting European qualification, still close enough to feel that a strong finish can rescue a season that has lurched between convincing and frustrating.
That gap in status is obvious. The mood is less straightforward. Heracles are desperate, and desperate teams can make games messy. Ajax have the stronger squad and the bigger objective, but they arrive after a home defeat to FC Twente and with just one win in their last five competitive outings. So this isn’t one of those weekends where the away side can simply turn up and expect the points to land in their lap. They should still fancy it. They’ll also know they’re facing a defence that has shipped 74 goals in 29 league games. That is the invitation.
There’s another layer to it. Heracles have gone eight league matches without a win, while Ajax have drifted through too many draws on the road this season. The hosts need points because the season is running away from them. Ajax need them because fifth place is useful, but not satisfying. Neither side can really settle for caution, and that’s what makes the goal line so attractive here.
Heracles Almelo Form & Analysis
Ernest Faber’s side are stuck in a grim cycle. They aren’t just losing games; they’re losing them in ways that expose the same flaws again and again. Last weekend’s 4-1 defeat away at Heerenveen summed it up. Heracles actually scored first through Mario Engels in the 21st minute, then folded. By half-time they were 2-1 down, the second goal coming in stoppage time from the penalty spot, and after the break it got worse. The underlying numbers were ugly too: 7 shots to Heerenveen’s 24, 4 shots on target to 14, and six big chances conceded. You can survive one of those stats. Not all of them.
The weeks before that were hardly kinder. They were thrashed 4-0 at AZ Alkmaar on 15 March, held 1-1 at home by Excelsior on 20 March, and before that drew 0-0 with FC Utrecht at Erve Asito. There was also a 3-1 home loss to PSV at the end of February and a 4-0 defeat at Go Ahead Eagles before that. That’s the last six: four defeats, two draws, no wins, and 16 goals conceded. Brutal. Worse still, their last league win came back on 1 February, a 2-1 home success over Fortuna Sittard. Since then, the slide hasn’t stopped.
At home, the record gives them at least a sliver of hope, even if it’s not exactly comforting. Heracles have taken 15 points from 14 league games on their own ground, winning four, drawing three and losing seven. They’ve scored 22 home goals and conceded 29, which tells you these matches rarely stay quiet for long. They can create a bit. They can’t protect themselves. That’s the theme. Even in games where they’ve shown some resistance — the 0-0 with Utrecht, the 1-1 with Excelsior — there’s never been a real sense of control. The clean sheet against Utrecht stands out because it felt unusual, not because it signalled improvement.
That’s the problem with Heracles right now. They’re open. Too open. Their overall record of 34 goals scored in 29 games says they’re not toothless, but 74 conceded is catastrophic. They don’t need to be perfect against Ajax. They do need to avoid the kind of collapse we saw at Heerenveen and AZ. Easier said than done.
AFC Ajax Form & Analysis
Ajax aren’t in sparkling form themselves, and Oscar Garcia will know that. Their most recent league outing was a 2-1 home defeat to FC Twente, a result that will have stung because it was flat rather than freakish. Wout Weghorst got them level in the first half after Ramiz Zerrouki had opened the scoring, but they never really seized control and were punished late on by Bart van Rooij. The xG numbers leaned Twente’s way too, 1.45 to 0.94, and Ajax managed only two shots on target. For a side chasing Europe, that’s not enough.
Before that, there was a 1-1 draw away to Feyenoord on 22 March, which is a result you can live with, and a 4-0 home win over Sparta Rotterdam on 14 March, which showed the sharp version of Ajax still exists. Sandwiching those games was a strange run on the road: a 1-0 defeat at Groningen on 7 March despite scoring three goals? No — the listed result reads as a loss, but the scoreline supplied is 3-1 away at Groningen, which doesn’t line up cleanly. Best to stick with the broader pattern: Ajax haven’t won many away games lately, and there was also a 0-0 draw at PEC Zwolle on 1 March. They even drew 0-0 in a friendly with Volendam. So the trend is clear enough. This is a team capable of a big attacking display, but just as capable of drifting out of rhythm.
Their away league record is a little odd. Ajax are eighth in the Eredivisie away table with 18 points from 14 matches, built on three wins, nine draws and only two defeats. So they don’t lose many on the road. They just leave too much unfinished. They’ve scored 25 away goals and conceded 24, which points to open enough matches without full authority. You can see why they’re fifth overall rather than pushing higher: 12 draws across the season is a hefty drag.
Still, the upside is obvious. Ajax have 54 goals in 29 league games, 20 more than Heracles, and the xG projection for this one gives them a healthy 2.31 expected goals on its own. Against this Heracles defence, that feels believable. The question isn’t really whether Ajax will create chances. They should. The real question is whether they’ll take enough of them, and whether they’ll keep the back door shut. Recent road games suggest they often leave opponents with something to attack. Against a side with nothing to lose, that matters.
Head-to-Head
Ajax have had this fixture in a firm grip for a while. They’ve won six of the last eight meetings listed, and Heracles haven’t beaten them in any of those games. The reverse fixture this season finished 2-0 to Ajax in Amsterdam in August, while last season brought a 4-0 Ajax win and a chaotic 4-3 victory for them away at Heracles. That last scoreline is probably the one that catches the eye here.
There’s a pattern in the goals too. Five of the last six meetings between these sides have gone over 2.5 goals, and Ajax have often found room to score freely. Heracles did manage a 0-0 in this fixture back in October 2021, but that feels like an outlier in the wider run. More often than not, Ajax get at them.
We Predict: Over 3.5 Goals
Over 3.5 Goals at 2.10 is the standout play here. The projected scoreline is 1-3, and that alone tells the story: Ajax are expected to create enough to do most of the heavy lifting, while Heracles still have a fair shot at nicking one themselves. With Heracles conceding 74 times in 29 league matches and Ajax carrying a projected xG of 2.31, the away side don’t need much help to push this past the line.
The other part of the case is Heracles’ home profile. They’ve scored 22 and conceded 29 in 14 home league games, so their matches in Almelo are rarely sterile. Even when results are poor, they don’t always go quietly, and Ajax’s away record — 25 scored, 24 conceded — has enough looseness in it to leave room for both teams to contribute. We’re expecting Ajax’s quality to tell, but not a polished shutout. A 3-1 away win feels right.
If you wanted a secondary angle, Ajax to win and over 2.5 goals would appeal for obvious reasons. Still, the straight goals line gives you a bit more cover if Heracles help turn this into the scrappy, stretched game it threatens to become.
