Juventus host Benfica in a crucial Champions League clash on Wednesday evening, January 21, 2026, at the Allianz Stadium in Turin. The hosts sit fifth in Serie A with 39 points from 21 matches under Luciano Spalletti, while José Mourinho's Benfica occupy third place in the Primeira Liga with 42 points from 18 games. Juventus enter as favorites but face a Benfica side that has dominated this fixture historically, winning four of their last six meetings with no defeats in the last three Champions League encounters.
Juventus arrives in patchy form after a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Cagliari on Saturday despite dominating possession. That loss ended an eight-game unbeaten run in Serie A, which included a blistering 5-0 demolition of Cremonese on January 12 and a 3-0 victory over Sassuolo on January 6. Their Champions League campaign has been inconsistent, collecting just 9 points from six matches. Spalletti faces a major blow with striker Dušan Vlahović sidelined until March with a tendon injury, leaving Jonathan David to lead the attack. Daniele Rugani and Arkadiusz Milik are also unavailable, while Carlo Pinsoglio serves a suspension.
Benfica head to Turin with renewed confidence after securing a 2-0 win over Rio Ave on Saturday. Goals from Barreiro and an own goal sealed the points after recent setbacks including a 1-0 Portuguese Cup exit to Porto on January 14 and a 3-1 League Cup defeat to Braga on January 7. Mourinho's side opened January with a 3-1 league victory over Estoril. The visitors sit 25th in the Champions League standings with 6 points and desperately need a result to keep their knockout hopes alive. Striker Vangelis Pavlidis has been sharp with four goals in his last five appearances, but Benfica will be without suspended midfielder Richard Rios and injured winger Dodi Lukebakio.
Benfica's dominance in this fixture is stark. The Portuguese side beat Juventus 2-0 in their most recent meeting on January 29, 2025, and triumphed 2-1 away in Turin back in September 2022. Earlier that year, they stunned Juventus 4-3 at home in an October 2022 thriller. Juventus have never beaten Benfica in their head-to-head history, managing just two or three draws across six or seven total meetings.
My model backs Juventus to break that unwelcome streak at odds of 83/100 (1.83 decimal). The model gives Juventus a 67.00% win probability and predicts a 2-0 correct score. Expected goals favor the hosts heavily at 2.05 for Juventus against just 0.72 for Benfica. Benfica has conceded at least once in four of their last five matches, suggesting defensive vulnerability. The xG gap of 1.33 underscores the home advantage and Juventus's superior attacking threat on their own turf.
