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Levski Sofia fit the home-win part of the bet very well. They are top of the league with 21 wins from 28 matches, and their home record is especially strong at 12 wins, one draw and one loss. Goals have usually come with those results too: Levski have scored 37 times in 14 home league games, so asking them to win a match that reaches at least two total goals is not an aggressive line.
Arda Kardzhali bring decent recent form, with four wins, one draw and one loss from their last six league matches, so they are not an easy opponent. Still, their away split is much less convincing than Levski’s home one, with five wins, four draws and five defeats, and only 14 goals scored in those 14 away matches. That makes it harder to see them matching the league leaders over 90 minutes, even if they can keep games competitive.
Levski’s own recent results also suit this market more than a straight win-only case. They have won four of their last six league matches, and five of those six games cleared the 1.5-goal line. The 2-2 draw away to FK Dobrudzha Dobrich on Sunday, 5 April does show some defensive looseness, but it also continued the pattern that their matches often get beyond one total goal.
One head-to-head angle is useful here: Levski have scored first in each of the last six meetings between these sides. Recent meetings have also included 3-0 wins for Levski away in November 2025 and May 2025, plus home wins of 2-1 and 4-0 in this fixture across the last two seasons. The projection of 1.8 to 0.9 xG is not huge, so this looks more comfortable for Home Win & Over 1.5 than for a much bigger goals line.
My prediction is Home Win & Over 1.5 at 1.62. Levski are 12-1-1 at home in the league, they have scored 37 home goals, Arda are only 5-4-5 away, and Levski have scored first in the last six head-to-head meetings. The projected 2-0 score also matches the market neatly.
