Liverpool return to Anfield on Saturday evening needing a response, and not a mild one. Arne Slot’s side host Fulham in the Premier League with the table tightening around the European places, and fifth place no longer feels comfortable enough to coast. Liverpool sit on 49 points from 31 games, Fulham are five points behind in ninth, and that gap tells its own story: this is a chance for the home side to steady themselves after a bruising spell, while Marco Silva’s team can drag themselves back into the conversation with a result.
There’s pressure on both dugouts, even if it comes in different forms. Liverpool’s recent weeks have been shaped by setbacks in multiple competitions, including that flat 2-0 defeat away to Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday in the Champions League knockout stage. They were second best all night, barely laid a glove on PSG, and the numbers were ugly. Fulham, by contrast, arrive fresher and with a little more calm after a 3-1 home win over Burnley before the international break. They’re not chasing the title or fighting for survival. They are chasing relevance, though, and a win at Anfield would change the tone of their run-in in a hurry.
Liverpool Form & Analysis
Liverpool’s last month has gone badly. There’s no point dressing it up. They’ve lost four of their last six matches, and three in a row if you include the league, cup and Europe together. It started with that 1-0 defeat away to Galatasaray in Europe on 10 March, a result they did correct emphatically with a 4-0 win in the return leg at Anfield eight days later. In between and after that, the stumbles kept coming. Tottenham left Anfield with a 1-1 Premier League draw on 15 March, Brighton beat them 2-1 on the south coast six days later, Manchester City hammered them 4-0 away in the FA Cup on 4 April, and then PSG controlled them in Paris on Wednesday.
That latest loss is the one that really jars. Liverpool produced just three shots, none on target, with an xG of only 0.18 while allowing 18 efforts and four big chances at the other end. That’s not bad luck. That’s a team being overwhelmed. Mind you, Anfield has still been a far safer place for them than the road this season. In the league they’ve taken 28 points from 15 home games, winning eight, drawing four and losing three, while scoring 27 and conceding 17. Those are solid numbers, if not vintage Liverpool ones. You’d still expect them to carry threat here.
The problem is obvious enough: they aren’t defending cleanly. Liverpool have gone three matches without a clean sheet, and even in games they’ve controlled at home they’ve left openings. The flip side? They generally create enough at Anfield to cover for that. Their home goals record works out at 1.8 per league game, comfortably above the division’s average for hosts, and the projected xG here at 1.93 points toward another afternoon where they should carve out chances. The question isn’t whether Liverpool will get opportunities. It’s whether the confidence has taken a knock after the run they’ve had. Right now, this is a good side searching for a convincing 90 minutes.
Fulham Form & Analysis
Fulham’s recent run is a bit more mixed than it first appears, but there are positives in it. They beat Sunderland 3-1 away on 22 February, then followed that with an excellent 2-1 home win over Tottenham on 1 March. After that came a wobble: a 1-0 home defeat to West Ham, then another 1-0 loss at home to Southampton in the FA Cup. Silva’s team did stop the slide with a goalless draw away to Nottingham Forest on 15 March, and they signed off before the break with a deserved 3-1 victory over Burnley.
That Burnley match was encouraging. Fulham posted 22 shots, generated 2.36 xG and created four big chances, eventually pulling away in the final half-hour through Joshua King and Harry Wilson after Zian Flemming had opened the scoring. It was a reminder of what they can look like when the front line clicks. They’re not a passive side and they don’t need many invitations to attack. Still, the away record is the snag here. Fulham are 17th in the away table with just 15 points from 15 matches, built on four wins, three draws and eight defeats, with 16 scored and 25 conceded. That’s a long way from top-eight level.
Can they still trouble Liverpool? Yes, absolutely. Fulham average more than a goal a game on their travels in the league, and Liverpool haven’t looked watertight. But this is where balance matters. Fulham’s away profile is that of a team who can score but rarely control the full contest. They’ve shipped 25 goals in 15 road games, and when stronger sides pin them back, the resistance tends to crack eventually. A 0-0 draw at Forest was useful, but Anfield asks a different question. A much harder one.
Head-to-Head
These fixtures have been noisy for a while now. The reverse meeting in January finished 2-2 at Craven Cottage, and Fulham are unbeaten in the last three league meetings with Liverpool, including a 3-2 home win in April 2025 and a 2-2 draw at Anfield in December 2024. That little sequence should at least stop anyone from treating this as a routine home banker.
There’s another pattern here, and it’s hard to ignore: goals. Both teams have scored in each of the last seven meetings between the clubs. That doesn’t automatically force the betting angle this time, but it does fit the broader picture of a fixture that tends to stay open and give both attacks chances.
We Predict: Home Win
Home Win at 1.65 is the play. Liverpool’s recent form is poor, no question, but context matters: several of those defeats came away from home and against high-level opposition, while their league record at Anfield still reads eight wins from 15 with only 17 goals conceded. Fulham’s away numbers are the key swing factor. Four wins, eight defeats, 25 goals let in. That’s not the profile of a side you trust fully at Anfield.
There is some risk here because Liverpool haven’t been shutting teams out and Fulham have enough edge in attack to nick one, which is why the projected 2-1 scoreline feels right. Liverpool should create the better chances — the xG projection of 1.93 to 1.18 leans that way clearly enough — and if they play anywhere near their level at home, they ought to edge it. If you wanted a side angle, Both Teams to Score has some appeal given Liverpool’s recent defensive leaks and the history of this fixture. The main call still stays simple: Liverpool to win, likely by the odd goal in three.
