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Middlesbrough come into this one unbeaten in their last two, but the bigger picture is a run of three matches without a win, with draws against Blackburn Rovers and Bristol City and a home defeat to Charlton Athletic in that stretch. At home they have still been hard to beat overall, losing only three of 19 league games at the Riverside, and their home record includes 10 wins and six draws. That profile suits a double chance angle, because they have given themselves plenty of chances to avoid defeat even when the results have not been fully turning into wins.
Millwall have also been competitive on their travels, with nine away wins, six draws and only four defeats in the league. Their recent run includes a draw at Ipswich Town and four wins in six before that, so they are not arriving as a side that can be brushed aside easily. Still, they have been a little less secure defensively on the road than Middlesbrough have been at home, conceding 21 away league goals compared with Boro’s 14 at the Riverside, which leaves some room for the hosts to edge the result or at least avoid losing.
The recent goal trend points to a tight contest rather than a runaway result. Middlesbrough’s last six league games have produced only one match with more than two goals, while four of their last six finished level or by a single goal. Millwall’s last six have been mixed too, and although they have scored in five of those games, they have not been operating at a level that suggests they will comfortably overpower a top-two home side. The head-to-head also leans toward caution, with eight of the last ten meetings landing under 2.5 goals.
That sits neatly with the expected flow here, even if the 1-1 correct score projection hints at another draw. Middlesbrough’s home record gives them a strong base for avoiding defeat, while Millwall’s away numbers show they can travel without collapsing. The combination of Boro’s resilience at home and Millwall’s tendency to keep games close makes the home side side of the double chance the safer angle than backing either team outright.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X at 1/6. Middlesbrough have lost only three of 19 home league matches, they are unbeaten in their last two, and Millwall’s away record still includes four defeats. The recent 0-0 at Blackburn and 1-1 against Bristol City also show Boro are regularly doing enough to stay in games, even when they are not always winning them.
