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Millwall’s recent league form has been strong enough to keep them near the top, with four wins and one draw from their last six Championship matches. That run includes away wins at Preston North End and Hull City, plus a 2-1 victory at Middlesbrough on 3 April, so they have not needed spotless defending to get results. Norwich City arrive with a mixed spell of three wins, one draw and two losses from their last six, and their away record is a useful reminder that they can contribute goals even when they do not control games.
The scoring profile points towards an open contest more than a cagey one. Millwall have scored 55 league goals and conceded 45, while Norwich sit on 53 for and 47 against, which is a decent base for a total-goals play. At home, Millwall’s Championship matches average 1.4 goals for and 1.1 against per game, while Norwich’s away numbers are similar, and that balance gives room for both sides to get on the board. A projected 2-1 scoreline fits that pattern, although it does leave little margin if the match starts slowly.
Recent head-to-head meetings also lean toward goals, with five of the last six producing more than 2.5. The same sequence has seen both teams score in five of six, and Millwall’s own run shows they have gone three straight without a clean sheet in league play. Norwich’s latest 1-1 draw with Portsmouth was tight, but their away win at Charlton and their overall away record suggest they are capable of adding to the total here.
Norwich do have a reasonable away record, with eight wins and five draws from 20 league trips, so this is not a one-sided case for a shootout. Even so, Millwall’s home output, Norwich’s decent scoring return on the road, and the repeated high-scoring trend in this fixture all point in the same direction. The slight tension is that Norwich have also had a few lower-scoring recent games, but the stronger combined evidence still favours a goal-heavy afternoon.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 4/5. Millwall have been involved in five high-scoring league games from their last six, Norwich have enough away threat to contribute, and five of the last six meetings between these sides have cleared this line. Millwall’s recent defensive record also leaves the door open for chances at both ends, which suits a total above 2.5 more than a tight under.
