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Ogre United come into this Friday afternoon fixture in poor league form, with no wins in their last six league matches and only one point from their opening three Virsliga games. They have also failed to score more than once in any of those league outings, which keeps their threat limited even at home.
At home, Ogre’s numbers are still modest: one goal scored and two conceded from two league games, while their most recent home defeat to FK Liepaja brought an xG return of just 0.3 and an xGA of 2.5. That is a weak profile for stopping a side with a better attacking return, even if the projected scoreline leaves a small amount of room for a tight contest.
SK Super Nova have already shown more as an away side, taking three points from two league trips and scoring three goals in those matches. Their overall record is more balanced too, with four goals scored and four conceded, and their last away win at FK Tukums 2000 showed enough attacking edge to suggest they can again find a result on the road.
There is a slight tension in the fact that Ogre’s home games have not all been wide open, but SK Super Nova have also gone seven matches without a clean sheet and have seen both teams score in six of their last seven. Against an Ogre side that has not won in six and has struggled to create, the away side’s superior away output looks like the cleaner angle.
My prediction is Away Win at 5/4. SK Super Nova have the better away record, Ogre United are winless in their last six league matches, and Ogre’s home attack has managed only one goal in two league games. The 1-2 projection fits a narrow away success rather than a comfortable one, but the form and scoring balance still point to the visitors taking all three points.
