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Olympique de Marseille host Liverpool at the Stade Vélodrome on Wednesday evening, January 21, 2026, in a Europa League clash between two sides with contrasting recent form. Marseille sit third in Ligue 1 with 35 points, while Liverpool occupy fourth in the Premier League with 36 points. Both managers are under scrutiny—Roberto De Zerbi faces questions about his team's mentality after mixed results, while Arne Slot battles mounting frustration over Liverpool's inability to find consistency.
Marseille arrive with momentum after dismantling Angers 5-2 on Friday. Amine Gouiri, Mason Greenwood, Hamed Traoré, and Timothy Weah all found the net in a dominant first-half display that saw them lead 4-1 at the break. The victory followed a 9-0 thrashing of Bayeux in the Coupe de France on January 13 and a penalty shootout loss to PSG in the Champions Trophy on January 8. However, De Zerbi's men stumbled badly on January 4, losing 2-0 at home to Nantes in a performance that left their Italian boss questioning whether he needs to be "more of a psychologist than a coach." Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang remains the attacking focal point, coming off the bench against Angers to add experience to a fluid forward line.
Liverpool's recent run tells a different story. The Reds drew 1-1 with Burnley on Saturday despite Florian Wirtz opening the scoring, with Dominik Szoboszlai missing a penalty before Marcus Edwards equalized. That result extended a worrying pattern—three consecutive Premier League draws against Fulham (2-2), Arsenal (0-0), and Leeds (0-0) in January, punctuated only by a 4-1 FA Cup win over Barnsley. Slot acknowledged it would be "completely wrong" not to be frustrated, understanding why fans booed at full time. The Dutch manager faces a mounting injury crisis, with Conor Bradley out for the season and Alexander Isak sidelined for months following ankle surgery. Mohamed Salah's return from AFCON duty could provide a timely boost.
Liverpool have struggled defensively of late, conceding in four of their last five matches and managing just one clean sheet across their previous eight fixtures.
Marseille and Liverpool last met in the 2004 UEFA Cup, when the French side progressed 3-2 on aggregate. After a 1-1 draw at Anfield, Didier Drogba's penalty and Abdoulaye Meite's strike sealed a 2-1 second-leg victory at the Vélodrome despite Emile Heskey's opener. Over six all-time meetings, Liverpool hold a 3-2 advantage with one draw, but Marseille's home record in that tie offers encouragement for De Zerbi's squad.
My model backs both teams to score at 57/100 (1.57 decimal) with a 55.05% probability. I predict a 1-1 draw with expected goals sitting at 1.33 for Marseille and 1.31 for Liverpool. The razor-thin xG gap reflects two sides in similar positions—capable of creating chances but vulnerable at the back.
