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Pendikspor come in with only one defeat in their last six league matches, and that run has included three draws and two wins, so they have been difficult to beat even when they have not been at their sharpest. Their home record is stronger still, with eight wins, five draws and only three losses, plus just 10 goals conceded in 16 home league games, which is the kind of platform that usually points towards the hosts avoiding any upset.
Hatayspor, by contrast, are in deep trouble. They have lost all six of their most recent league matches, have gone 34 games without a win, and their away record is especially grim at 0 wins, 3 draws and 13 defeats, with 48 goals conceded on the road. That away fragility matters here because they have also been first to concede in nine of their last 10, so Pendikspor should be able to impose the terms early.
Goals are not the cleanest angle if the expectation is a straightforward home win, because Pendikspor’s recent league games have been mixed, with a 0-0 at Ümraniyespor and a few 1-1s among the results. Even so, Hatayspor’s matches have regularly opened up at the back, and their current run has included six straight defeats and a lack of defensive resistance; the head-to-head also leans in that direction, with both teams scoring in six of the last seven meetings.
Pendikspor’s latest outing at Ümraniyespor finished goalless, but they still showed control in the underlying numbers, and their overall home figures remain far superior to Hatayspor’s away returns. The visitors were poor again in their 0-3 defeat to Amed Sportif Faaliyetler, creating only 0.25 xG, so there is little evidence they can survive a test against a side sitting sixth in the table with 54 points.
My prediction is Home Win at 1/20. Pendikspor are unbeaten in five league matches, their home record reads eight wins, five draws and three losses, and Hatayspor have lost all six of their recent league games while going winless in 34. The away numbers are even harsher for Hatayspor, who have only three points from 16 trips, and Pendikspor have already beaten them 1-0 in the reverse fixture.
