Montana come into Wednesday evening with five straight league defeats and no win in their last 16 matches, which is the strongest result angle for an away-backed combo. The under side of the bet also has support from their low-output home numbers: just nine goals scored in 13 home league games, and two of their last three at home ended 0-1 and 0-3 rather than turning into wide-open contests.
CSKA Sofia have won four of their last six league matches, and three of those wins were to nil. Their away record is solid rather than dominant at 5 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses, but they have still conceded only 14 goals in 14 away league games, which helps the Under 3.5 part of the selection as much as the away-win case. Seven of their last nine league matches have finished with fewer than three goals, so even when they get the result, games often stay controlled.
There is one obvious tension with this pick: the last league meeting finished 3-1 to CSKA Sofia, and the head-to-head trend has often been more goal-heavy than this market wants. Even so, the current numbers point lower, with the xG projection at roughly 0.8 for Montana and 1.5 for CSKA Sofia, which sits much closer to a 0-2 or 0-1 away win than to a match that breaks past three goals.
The latest results also fit that pattern. Montana lost 2-1 away to Arda Kardzhali on 4 April, while CSKA Sofia won 3-0 away at Beroe Stara Zagora on the same date, generating 1.8 xG and allowing 1.1 xGA. CSKA have also been first to score in four of their last five, and Montana have conceded first in each of their last five, a useful match-result clue for an away side expected to control the game without needing a shootout.
My prediction is Away Win & Under 3.5 at 1.87. Montana are bottom with 15 goals scored and 44 conceded across 28 league matches, they are winless in 16 overall, CSKA have won four of their last six league games with three clean sheets, and seven of CSKA’s last nine league matches have stayed under 2.5 goals, which strongly supports the combined away-result and lower-total angle.
