Shelbourne come into this on a four-match unbeaten run in the league, with three wins and a draw, and they have found a way to score in each of their last four outings. Their last six have produced five matches with at least two goals, while the only outlier was the 1-0 away win at Sligo Rovers on 21 March.
Dundalk FC have also been open enough to keep this in range for goals, with three of their last six league games finishing level and two of their last three away matches ending 1-1 or 2-2. Their most recent trip to Bohemians finished 1-1, and their away record still shows no wins, but it does come with six goals scored in four away league games.
Shelbourne’s home numbers are not especially strong, with no wins in four league matches at home, yet those games have still produced a 5-6 goal tally. Dundalk’s away split is similar in tone, with four draws and one defeat and 10 goals conceded, so both sides have been involved in matches that allow chances at either end rather than tight, low-event contests.
The head-to-head also leans toward goals rather than a cagey script, with Shelbourne beating Dundalk 2-1 in January and the sides sharing a 2-1 result in a friendly before that. With the xG projection set at 1.6 for Shelbourne and 1.2 for Dundalk, the expected total sits comfortably above the line, even if the exact 2-1 score forecast leaves little margin.
My prediction is Over 1.5 Goals at 1/3. Shelbourne have gone above that mark in five of their last six league matches, Dundalk have recent scores of 1-1, 5-0 and 2-2 in the mix, and both teams are carrying enough attacking output to threaten a two-goal game. The home and away splits also point to open fixtures, with Shelbourne’s home games and Dundalk’s away matches both producing plenty of goals.
