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SV Wehen Wiesbaden come into this on the back of a heavy 3-0 defeat at Alemannia Aachen, but their home record still gives them a platform for a more open game. They have scored 31 and conceded 16 in 15 home league matches, while their overall 42 goals scored in 29 league games point to a side that usually contributes at the right end of the pitch.
TSV Havelse’s numbers are even more relevant to a goals bet. They have shipped 72 goals in 31 league matches and 37 away from home in just 15 trips, while scoring 20 on the road themselves. Their recent away results have also been high-scoring, with five goals conceded in Regensburg and three in Mannheim, so clean sheets are not part of their profile.
Recent head-to-head meetings between these sides have also produced goals, with the last three ending 2-0, 1-0 and 2-1 in Wiesbaden’s favour. That does not guarantee a repeat, but it does sit comfortably with a home side that usually gets chances at home and an away side that has struggled to control matches.
There is a small tension with Wiesbaden’s 0-0 draw at TSV 1860 München and their 0-1 home loss to Hansa Rostock, but Havelse’s defensive record is weak enough to keep the focus on an over. The projected 2.0 to 1.2 xG split also leans toward a game with enough chances for three goals.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 57/100. Havelse have gone over this line in five straight league matches, they have conceded in 11 straight, and their away games have repeatedly turned into open contests. Wiesbaden’s strong home scoring record adds another route to three goals, even if their recent 3-0 loss at Aachen is a reminder that the exact scoreline can still swing a little.
