The New Saints come into Friday’s Championship Round meeting in strong home shape, with 12 wins, no draws and only three losses at home in the league, and their overall record of 24 wins from 30 league matches underlines why they are favourites. They also arrive off a 4-0 away win at Caernarfon Town on 27 March, a game in which they produced 2.6 xG and 21 shots, so their attack is travelling well.
Connah’s Quay Nomads are not easy visitors, though, with eight away wins, five draws and only two defeats in the league. Even so, they were held 1-1 at home by Barry Town on 29 March and have won only one of their last two league games, which is a small step down from the better run they had built earlier in the month. Their away defensive numbers are respectable, but they still face a much sharper home side here.
This fixture has also been friendly to goals and to the Welsh champions’ attack. The New Saints have scored in each of the last three head-to-heads listed here, while Connah’s Quay Nomads have gone without a clean sheet in 14 of the recent meetings noted in the data. That lines up with a home side that has 44 goals in 15 league home games and a visiting side that has conceded only 14 away, which is decent but not usually enough to shut the door completely.
There is a slight tension in the numbers because Connah’s Quay’s away record is solid and they have taken points on the road often enough to make this closer than a simple top-versus-second table reading. Still, The New Saints have the stronger home output, the better league goal difference, and the more convincing recent attacking performance, which leaves them with the edge in a match that could still be competitive.
My prediction is Home Win at 53/100. The New Saints have won 12 of 15 home league matches without a draw, they are coming off a convincing 4-0 away victory, and they have already beaten Connah’s Quay in the recent head-to-head at this ground. Connah’s Quay’s away record is decent, but their 1-1 draw with Barry Town and the long run of meetings without a clean sheet against TNS point toward the home side keeping control.
