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Torreense arrive on Monday evening in better shape, with four wins, one draw and one defeat from their last six league matches. Their recent run has included three straight away wins, while at home they have still put together useful results such as the 1-0 victory over Portimonense SAD and the 1-0 win against SL Benfica B U21.
Leixões SC have been far less reliable, with three wins and three losses in their last six. Their away form is especially mixed, and the 3-1 loss at Académico Viseu FC and the 2-1 defeat at SC Farense point to a side that can be opened up on the road.
The league table also favours Torreense, who sit fourth with 45 points and a solid 35-27 goal difference. Leixões are down in 12th on 34 points, and their overall 49 goals conceded is a clear warning sign when they face a side with Torreense’s home record of seven wins, one draw and five losses.
Head to head leans Torreense’s way enough to support the home side, especially after last season’s 3-2 win in this fixture. Leixões did edge the reverse meeting 1-0 in November, but the broader picture is that Torreense have scored in four straight clashes with them, which matters more here than the isolated away win.
My prediction is Home Win at 17/20. Torreense have the stronger season record, a better home return, and they come in on four wins from their last six. Leixões have lost three of their last six and have already shown defensive gaps away from home, while the xG projection of 1.5 to 0.9 still points Torreense toward the more likely winner.
