Trabzonspor welcome Başakşehir FK to the Black Sea coast on Sunday evening in the Trendyol Süper Lig, and both clubs arrive with plenty still to play for. Trabzonspor sit third and are chasing a strong finish that keeps them in the thick of the European qualification picture, while Başakşehir are sixth and still have enough time to push upward if they can string together results. At this stage of the season, every point bites a bit harder. One win can change the mood quickly. One slip can linger.
This meeting also carries a bit of extra edge because these sides already know each other well. They met in the Türkiye Kupası group stage on 3 March, when Trabzonspor went to Başakşehir and won 4-2. They then repeated the trick in the league at the end of November, edging a thrilling 4-3 away win. That sort of recent history matters. Both teams have been involved in open games, and both know the other can hurt them if the tempo gets away from them.
Trabzonspor come into this one from a position of strength, and there’s a calm confidence around Fatih Tekke’s side. They’re unbeaten in eight league matches, and the run has been built with a mix of control and incision. It hasn’t all been flashy, but it has been effective. They beat Çaykur Rizespor 1-0 at home, won 3-1 away to Kayserispor, edged Eyüpspor 1-0 on the road, then took a big step by beating Galatasaray 2-1 at home. Their latest outing, a 1-1 draw away to Alanyaspor on 11 April, ended the winning streak, though even there they were the sharper side for long spells and produced the better underlying numbers.
The home record is a big part of why Trabzonspor are sitting third. They’ve taken 31 points from 14 league matches on their own pitch, with nine wins, four draws and just one defeat. That’s serious form. They’ve scored 27 and conceded 13 at home, which tells you the balance is right: enough attack to win most games, enough defensive organisation to avoid chaos. There’s a clear pattern too. Trabzonspor have scored first in seven straight matches, and that habit of getting in front early makes them difficult to chase. They don’t look like a side that sits back and prays. They get hold of games.
The Alanyaspor draw summed them up well. Trabzonspor had 17 shots, 2.05 xG and only allowed 0.18 xGA, yet still had to settle for a point after conceding a late equaliser from the penalty spot. That’s the small frustration with this team: they create enough to win more often than not, but they’re not immune to the odd lapse or wasteful spell. Still, the overall picture is strong. They’ve got goals in them, and their home scoring record suggests they won’t be shy here. The only real question is whether they can keep the defensive lid on a Başakşehir side that has started finding rhythm again.
Trabzonspor Form & Analysis
Fatih Tekke’s side have turned their season into a proper upward march over the last month. Since losing 2-3 at home to Fenerbahçe on 14 February, they’ve not tasted defeat in league action. That’s the sort of run that changes a campaign. From there came the 3-1 win at Kayserispor, the 1-0 home success against Çaykur Rizespor, the 1-0 away victory at Eyüpspor and then the headline result against Galatasaray, a 2-1 win in Trabzon that underlined just how competitive they’ve become against the league’s biggest names. The draw at Alanyaspor wasn’t a setback so much as a reminder that they’re not operating on autopilot. You still have to earn everything.
What stands out is the way they’ve mixed control with punch. Their home figures tell the story: 27 scored, 13 conceded, and only one defeat all season in front of their own fans. That’s not just good by their standards, it’s good by any standard in the division. They’re creating chances, getting bodies into the box and finding goals from different situations. The xG figure against Alanyaspor — 2.05 — only reinforced what the eye could see. They’re not scraping by on fumes. They’re making chances.
That said, they’re not impregnable. Trabzonspor have allowed opponents the odd route back into games, and Başakşehir will fancy their chances if the hosts switch off. But with the way Trabzonspor keep landing the first blow, that pressure rarely turns into panic. They’ve also got a knack for raising their level against stronger opposition, and the Galatasaray win was a neat example of that. You’d back them to create enough here. The only doubt is how quickly they can turn dominance into a scoreboard cushion.
Başakşehir FK Form & Analysis
Başakşehir arrive in Trabzon with more momentum than their league position might suggest. Nuri Şahin’s side have taken seven points from their last three league matches, starting with a 2-1 home win over Göztepe, then two goalless draws away to Kocaelispor and at home to Antalyaspor, before a convincing 3-0 victory over Gençlerbirliği on 11 April. That last result was a statement. They were sharp from the first whistle, scored early through Eldor Shomurodov, and kept coming. By half-time it was done. Simple as that.
Before that mini-resurgence, though, there was a clear dip. Başakşehir were beaten 3-0 at Galatasaray on 14 March, and they also lost 4-2 at home to Trabzonspor in the cup earlier in the month. Those defeats matter because they showed where the cracks can appear. Against stronger, more aggressive sides, they can be opened up. They’ve conceded 30 league goals, which is tidy enough overall, but there’s no great steel there. They can keep it tight. They can also get stretched.
Their away record is respectable and gives them a fighting chance. Seven wins, two draws and five defeats from 14 away matches is strong enough to keep them in the top half of the away table, and they’ve scored 21 while conceding 13 on the road. That’s not the profile of a timid travelling team. They’ll go after the game when the chance is there. Can they keep it up in Trabzon? That’s the issue. Their last away league trip finished 0-0 at Kocaelispor, which was solid rather than spectacular, and that tends to fit their wider away picture: competitive, but not always ruthless enough to turn good spells into wins.
The big concern is that Başakşehir have been outgunned in this fixture recently. They’ve had 10 straight meetings without a clean sheet against Trabzonspor, and that fits the eye test. This isn’t a side that usually shuts Trabzonspor down for long. If Şahin’s team get dragged into an open match, they’ll need to be sharp in both boxes. They’ve got the quality to score, no doubt. Whether they can stop Trabzonspor from doing the same is the real issue.
Head-to-Head
This matchup has been lively for a while, and the recent results lean heavily towards Trabzonspor. They’ve won the last six meetings, including the 4-2 cup tie earlier this month and the 4-3 league thriller in Istanbul in November. Before that came a 3-0 away league win in March 2025, a 1-0 home league win for Trabzonspor in October 2024, and another 1-0 away victory in May 2024. That’s a serious pattern. One-sided? Not always in the scoreline, but very much in the outcome.
The bigger trend is even more awkward for Başakşehir: they’ve gone 10 H2H matches without a clean sheet. That lines up neatly with the way these games usually unfold — Trabzonspor find a way through, and the scoreline tends to stay alive. Four of the last five meetings have gone to at least three goals, and when these two get rolling, the chances usually keep coming. No one should expect a cagey afternoon here.
We Predict: Over 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals at 4/7 is the play here, and it feels like the safest angle in a game that has all the ingredients for another lively meeting. Trabzonspor have scored freely at home, Başakşehir have enough attack to chip in, and the recent head-to-head record has been packed with goals. The last two meetings produced seven and six goals respectively. That’s not a coincidence.
There’s also a neat fit with the shape of the game. Trabzonspor keep scoring first, Başakşehir have been decent away from home, and neither side looks built to sit on a 0-0 for long. A 2-1 Trabzonspor win feels right, with the hosts’ home edge and stronger season-long consistency just about tipping it. If you wanted a small alternative, Trabzonspor to win and both teams to score has some appeal too. But the main bet is the clean one. Goals look likely, and another open contest wouldn’t surprise anyone.
