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Tranmere come into this one stuck in a long winless spell, with no victory in nine league games and only one draw in that run. Their home record is poor as well, with four wins, five draws and 11 defeats at Prenton Park, so they have not given much reason to trust them to keep Colchester out or turn the game their way.
Colchester’s away numbers are steadier, with six wins and six draws from 20 trips, and they arrive having avoided defeat in six of the last seven league meetings with Tranmere. The head-to-head record also leans towards the visitors staying competitive, with Colchester unbeaten in the last six against this opponent.
Goals have been fairly evenly split in the recent data, which suits a draw or away-double-chance angle more than a one-sided call. Tranmere’s last six league matches have produced only two goals scored and eight conceded, while Colchester have scored in five of their last six but have also gone five league games without a win. That combination points to a contest where Tranmere may struggle to land a decisive blow, even if the scoreline stays tight.
The projected numbers are not fully comfortable for a firm away win, though, because the xG sits only at 1.0 for Tranmere and 1.3 for Colchester, which is close enough to leave draw danger. Still, Colchester’s better league position, stronger away record and their six-match unbeaten run in this fixture all support them at least avoiding defeat.
My prediction is Double Chance X2 at 36/100. Colchester have gone six straight meetings with Tranmere without a loss, they have six away wins and six away draws this season, and Tranmere are without a win in nine league matches. Tranmere’s home record of four wins from 20 and Colchester’s five-game winless run suggest caution, but the visitors are the more reliable side not to lose.
