USL Dunkerque come into this one after five league matches without a win, and their last two outings have both ended in defeat. The home numbers are steadier than that overall spell, but they still include six draws in 14 home league games, which leaves them vulnerable to dropping points again against a side near the top end of Ligue 2.
Rodez AF are far harder to beat right now, with 14 league matches unbeaten and only one defeat in their last 15. They have drawn only one of their last six, but the broader away profile is solid enough for an X2 view: six away wins, four draws and four losses, plus 20 goals scored on the road. That balance gives them a better platform than Dunkerque’s current run of one win in six.
The goal picture is not especially one-sided, though, and that is why a draw remains live. Dunkerque have scored in five of their last six league games, while Rodez have also been regularly involved in matches that stay close, including three of their last five finishing with under 2.5 goals. The first meeting between these sides this season ended 1-1, and with projected xG at 0.9 for Dunkerque and 1.3 for Rodez, another narrow game looks more likely than a clear home response.
Dunkerque’s home record of 5 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses is respectable, but Rodez’s away form is the better guide here, especially with their current unbeaten sequence still intact. Dunkerque’s recent 1-5 loss at Troyes also underlines how quickly they can lose control when pressed, and Rodez have been efficient enough on the road to avoid that sort of collapse. The tension is that the expected score is tight, so the safer angle is to cover the away side rather than force a straight away win.
My prediction is Double Chance X2 at 73/100. Rodez AF are unbeaten in 14 league matches, they have lost only four of their 14 away games, and Dunkerque have gone five league matches without a win. The earlier 1-1 meeting between these clubs also fits a result where Rodez avoid defeat, even if the margin is likely to stay narrow.
