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Almere City come into Monday’s game with four wins and a draw in their last five league matches, and their home record gives them a strong scoring base with 38 goals in 17 at this ground. FC Den Bosch are also carrying threat, having scored at least twice in three of their last four, so the opening shape points more toward chances at both ends than a slow start.
That attacking edge is reflected in the season numbers too. Almere have 71 goals in 34 league matches, while Den Bosch have 58, and the combined xG projection of 3.2 suggests enough quality for three goals or more if both sides keep creating at their recent rate.
The recent scorelines also lean the same way. Almere’s last six league games have produced five that went over 2.5 goals, while Den Bosch have seen five of their last seven clear that line. Almere’s 3-2 win over TOP Oss on 3 April and Den Bosch’s 3-2 away victory at RKC Waalwijk underline how open both teams have been lately.
Head to head, the pattern is not perfect for a goals pick because seven of the last nine meetings finished below 2.5, but the most recent clash ended 5-2 to Den Bosch and Almere have failed to keep a clean sheet in three straight against this opponent. With both teams scoring in six of Den Bosch’s last seven and Almere unbeaten in five, the balance still favours another lively game.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 18/25. Almere’s home matches have been productive, Den Bosch have been involved in repeated high-scoring games, and both sides have recent results of 3-2 or 3-2 in their favour. The xG projection also sits above three goals, which leaves room for this line even if the older head-to-head record is a little more cautious.