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Barrow come into this one with only one win in their last six league matches, and that came at home against Bromley. They have also drawn twice in that run, including a 0-0 at Milton Keynes Dons on 3 April, which underlines how often their games have lacked a second scorer on at least one side.
At home, Barrow have managed just four wins all season and have scored only 13 goals in 19 league matches. That is a poor attacking return, and it is hard to ignore when they are facing a Chesterfield side that have already kept three clean sheets against Barrow in the last six meetings.
Chesterfield’s away record is solid, with eight wins and only five defeats, and they have won two of their last three league matches without conceding. Their latest trip ended in a 1-0 win at Accrington Stanley, and the visit to Barrow earlier in the campaign finished the same way, so they have recent evidence of controlling this fixture defensively.
The numbers do lean toward a tight game, even if the projected score of 1-1 introduces a small note of caution. Barrow’s xG at home sits below a goal per game on average, Chesterfield’s away concession rate is respectable, and the head-to-head has produced three Chesterfield wins and three clean sheets for them in the last six meetings.
My prediction is BTTS - No at 91/100. Chesterfield have kept three clean sheets in the last six head-to-heads, Barrow have failed to score in two of their last six league games and were blanked again in the 0-0 at Milton Keynes Dons, while Barrow’s home scoring record is only 13 goals in 19 league matches. Chesterfield’s recent away wins have also come without conceding, which fits the clean-sheet angle better than a game where both teams score.
