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Bohemian FC come into Monday evening unbeaten in 10 league matches, with three draws in a row after a 1-0 home win over Galway United. They have kept things especially tight at home, where their league record reads two wins and two draws from four, but the scoring has still been there often enough to matter for a goals line.
Waterford FC are the bigger driver for this market. They have gone nine league games without a win, have lost six of their last seven in the league, and their away record is four defeats from four with 15 goals conceded. Even so, they did score in their 1-1 draw with Shamrock Rovers on 3 April, and their recent results have been full of goals rather than closed-down contests.
The head-to-head trend also leans toward a more open game, with six of the last seven meetings going over 2.5 goals and Bohemian scoring in three straight against Waterford. That said, Bohemian’s own league profile has been more controlled than explosive, so the case for goals rests more on Waterford’s leaky away form than on Bohemian turning every home game into a shootout.
Bohemian’s xG projection of 2.2, alongside Waterford’s 0.8, points to the home side doing most of the damage, and Waterford’s away record suggests they may still find a way onto the scoresheet. The combination is good enough for an over 2.5 call, even if Bohemian’s recent run of lower-scoring results leaves a little tension around the line.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 4/7. Waterford’s away games have already produced plenty of conceded chances and goals, the head-to-head has landed over 2.5 in six of the last seven, and Bohemian’s 2.2 expected goals gives this match a strong home scoring base. Waterford have also failed to keep a clean sheet in six straight league matches, which keeps the path to three goals fairly clear.
