Benfica bring the clearest case for the result side of this bet. They are unbeaten in league play overall, with 19 wins and 8 draws, and their away record is especially strong at 10 wins and 3 draws from 13. Casa Pia, by contrast, sit 16th and have gone four league matches without a win, taking two draws and two defeats in that spell.
The goals leg also has support from both teams’ recent league patterns. Benfica’s last six league matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, and they have scored at least twice in five of those six. Casa Pia have conceded 48 goals in 26 league games, while at home they have allowed 22 in 12, so Benfica do not need much help to push this above the line.
There is one small note of caution around the totals part: the projections point more to a controlled Benfica win than a shootout, with Benfica at 1.7 xG, Casa Pia at 0.8, and a 1-2 correct-score lean. Even so, that still lands on both parts of the bet, and Casa Pia’s latest defeat was a 4-0 loss at Estrela Amadora where they allowed 2.9 xGA, 23 shots, and six big chances.
Previous meetings give Benfica enough support without overdoing the angle. They scored first in each of the last eight head-to-head games listed, and the reverse fixture this season finished 2-2. That does not guarantee another open game, but it does fit an away side likely to take control and leave the match total with a realistic path to three goals.
My prediction is Away Win & Over 2.5 at 1.70. Benfica are unbeaten away in the league at 10 wins and 3 draws, Casa Pia are winless in four league matches, Benfica’s last six league games have all gone over 2.5 goals, and Casa Pia have conceded 48 times in 26 league matches.
