Casarano come into Monday afternoon with three wins and a draw from their last four league games, and their home record is the kind that suits a straight home selection: nine wins, five draws and only three defeats in Serie C Group C. They have scored 25 and conceded 15 at home, so they are usually solid enough on their own ground to turn tight matches their way.
Potenza Calcio’s away numbers point the other way. In the league they have managed only three away wins all season, alongside four draws and ten defeats, with 17 goals scored and 34 conceded on the road. They did win 1-0 at Foggia in March, but their latest outing was a 1-0 loss at Latina in the Coppa Italia Serie C, where they produced only 0.3 xG and no shots on target.
Casarano have also been harder to beat recently, going three league matches unbeaten since their loss at Monopoli. Their last home league win over Giugliano finished 2-0, and while that was a useful clean sheet, Potenza’s profile makes this more about away resistance than a likely shutout. The only head-to-head listed ended 3-1 to Potenza in November 2025, so there is some history of goals, but the stronger current evidence is Casarano’s home edge against Potenza’s poor travel record.
The scoring numbers point to Casarano having the sharper balance at home, while Potenza have gone five games without keeping a clean sheet and have conceded 34 away goals in the league. Casarano’s recent 2-0 and 1-1 results also fit a side that can control home games without needing a shootout, even if the projected 2-1 scoreline leaves a little room for Potenza to compete.
My prediction is Home Win at 11/10. Casarano have taken nine home league wins already, while Potenza have lost ten of their 17 away matches in Serie C Group C. Casarano are unbeaten in three league games and have just beaten Giugliano at home, whereas Potenza have conceded heavily on the road and arrive after a poor away display at Latina.
