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De Graafschap come into this one with only one defeat in their last six league games, and their recent scores have been lively enough for an Over 2.5 angle to stand out. They drew 2-2 away at FC Eindhoven on 3 April, beat Willem II 2-0 in Tilburg, and have also been involved in a 2-1 win, a 1-4 home loss and a 3-3 draw in that same run.
Jong AZ Alkmaar have been just as open in the scoring markets, with their last six producing a 2-0 home win, a 3-4 away win, a 1-1 draw and three defeats. Even when they have lost, they have usually contributed to the total, while their away record of 35 scored and 32 conceded shows the kind of end-to-end pattern that keeps games moving past two goals.
The head-to-head adds more support to goals rather than caution, because five of the last five meetings have gone over 2.5 goals and four of the last five have seen both teams score. De Graafschap have also failed to keep a clean sheet in five straight meetings with Jong AZ, so the fixture has regularly produced enough chances at both ends.
There is a small tension with the exact score projection, since 2-1 only just clears the line, but the wider profile still points towards goals. De Graafschap’s home figures are strong enough for them to do their part, while Jong AZ’s away numbers and recent 3-4 win away at SC Cambuur suggest they can add to the total rather than sit back.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 3/10. De Graafschap have gone over 2.5 goals in five of their last six league matches, Jong AZ have been involved in high-scoring games all season, and the head-to-head record has produced five overs from the last five meetings. Both sides also arrive with scoring form intact, which is exactly what this line needs.
