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Deportivo Pereira arrive still chasing a first league win after 20 matches without one, but their home record is slightly sturdier than the overall table suggests. They have drawn three and lost three at home, and that draw count matters for a Double Chance 1X angle because they have kept games tight enough in this ground to avoid being blown away.
Alianza Valledupar FC are not a side that travel well either. Their away record is zero wins, two draws and five losses, with only two goals scored in seven road matches and 14 conceded, so their away profile does little to threaten a Pereira cover. That road struggle is the main reason the home side avoid-defeat market still looks safer than a straight result call.
Recent scores also point toward a cagey contest rather than a clean away breakthrough. Pereira have had two draws in their last six, while Alianza have split their last six with two wins, two draws and two losses, and their latest 0-0 against Deportivo Pasto came after a second-yellow red card for Jair Castillo in the 82nd minute. The projected 1-1 scoreline does leave room for a draw, but it also fits a fixture where Pereira only need to avoid defeat to land the bet.
There is some tension in the matchup because Pereira have not won in a long time, so backing them outright would ask for more than the form line offers. Even so, the combination of Alianza’s winless away run, their meagre two-goal return on the road, and Pereira’s habit of taking points at home keeps the double-chance side of the market in focus. The recent meeting in February 2025 also finished 0-0 in Pereira, underlining how often this pairing can stay close.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X at 8/13. Pereira are hard to trust for a win, but they have drawn three of six at home and Alianza have not won away all season. Alianza’s away return of two goals in seven matches is a poor attacking base, while the February 2025 meeting in Pereira ended level. Even with Pereira’s winless run, the home side are still the more reliable half of the double chance.
