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Dundalk come into this one with five matches unbeaten, and their recent scoring has been lively enough to keep the over in play. They have just put three past Shelbourne away, five past Waterford at home and two at Galway, so even their quieter outings have still produced chances at both ends of the pitch.
St. Patrick’s Athletic are arriving in even better shape, with seven league games unbeaten and six wins in their last seven. Their away record is also solid, but it is the scoring pattern that stands out most for a goals angle: four against Sligo Rovers, two at Waterford, and three away to Shelbourne earlier in the run, with only the 0-0 against Derry City interrupting that stretch.
The head-to-head picture also leans towards a higher total. Four of the last five meetings between these two have gone over 2.5 goals, including St. Patrick’s Athletic’s 4-0 win in February, although Dundalk did manage to take a 2-1 win in the cup meeting in October. That mix suggests the fixture can swing, but it has generally carried enough attacking output to clear a modest goals line.
There is still a small tension for an over bet because Dundalk’s home record has been tight overall, with only one goal conceded in three home league matches. Even so, their recent results have opened up more than that home split alone suggests, and St. Patrick’s Athletic have been creating and finishing chances well enough to keep the total moving.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10. Dundalk have gone over this line in several of their recent league games, St. Patrick’s Athletic have scored at least two in five of their last six, and four of the last five head-to-head meetings have also landed above 2.5 goals. The projected 2-1 scoreline fits the market, even if Dundalk’s home defensive record adds a little caution.
