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FC Emmen come in having failed to win their last five league matches, but their recent games have been much livelier than that run suggests. The 3-3 draw away to Vitesse on 3 April followed a 2-2 home draw with VVV-Venlo and a 2-4 defeat to SC Cambuur, so goals have been a regular feature in their fixtures.
MVV Maastricht are also arriving on the back of a defeat, losing 3-1 at home to RKC Waalwijk after a heavy 0-5 setback against Willem II. Their recent away games have been more open than their results imply, with a 1-1 draw at Jong AZ Alkmaar and another 1-1 at FC Dordrecht among the last six.
The league numbers point the same way. FC Emmen have scored 53 and conceded 64, while MVV have a worse defensive record with 69 goals shipped in 34 matches. At home Emmen have produced 33 goals in 17 games, and MVV’s away figures show 14 scored and 36 conceded, which is far from the profile of a low-scoring visit.
There is also enough head-to-head support for another game with goals. Four of the last five meetings between these sides have seen both teams score, and Emmen have gone five straight H2H games without keeping MVV out. That does not guarantee a repeat, but it sits neatly with the kind of open recent form both clubs have shown.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 3/25. Emmen have been involved in matches with six and four goals in their last two home league games, MVV have conceded three or more in two of their last three, and the teams’ season records point to shaky defending on both sides. The projected 2-1 scoreline also fits the line, even if it leaves little margin for a tight start.
