Hapoel Tel Aviv come into this one with excellent home numbers, winning 11 and drawing none of their 12 league matches at home, and they have not lost there since 19 October 2025. Even so, Maccabi Haifa’s away record is steady rather than fragile, with only one defeat in 12 on the road and eight draws, which is the sort of profile that keeps an away side competitive even in a tough venue.
Recent form also points to a close contest. Hapoel Tel Aviv are unbeaten in eight league games and have conceded only once in their last two, while Maccabi Haifa have gone three matches without a win and were beaten 1-0 at home by Hapoel Petach Tikva in their most recent outing. That said, Haifa still produced 20 shots and four big chances in that defeat, so their performance level has not dropped as sharply as the result suggests.
The scoring pattern is competitive rather than one-sided. Hapoel Tel Aviv have scored nine goals across their last four league matches and kept two clean sheets in that spell, while Maccabi Haifa have the stronger season total in attack with 46 league goals. The projected 1.4 to 1.0 xG split also leaves room for both teams to have chances, even if it does not scream a high-scoring game.
Head to head, Maccabi Haifa have had the better of this fixture for some time, including a 2-1 win in December 2025, and they are unbeaten in 13 meetings with Hapoel Tel Aviv. That edge matters here because Hapoel’s perfect home record is impressive, but Haifa’s away draw rate and long unbeaten run in this matchup suggest they are well placed to avoid defeat again.
My prediction is Away Win at 29/20. Maccabi Haifa have gone 13 straight meetings without losing to Hapoel Tel Aviv, they have lost only once in 12 away league matches, and Hapoel’s home record is strong enough to explain why the price is not shorter. The 1-2 correct-score lean also fits a match where Haifa’s stronger head-to-head edge can outweigh Hapoel’s excellent home form.
