New Mexico United have been trading punches in recent weeks, with three wins and two losses across their last five completed matches, and that pattern has usually brought goals. Their 3-2 home win over Colorado Springs on 28 March featured a late surge and plenty of attacking volume, while the 3-2 Open Cup win over Cruizers FC and the 2-1 home defeat to Orange County earlier in the run all point in the same direction. Even when New Mexico do not control a game cleanly, they are rarely quiet in front of goal.
El Paso Locomotive FC arrive with a stronger unbeaten stretch, taking three straight wins before a draw and then another win at Sacramento Republic FC on 29 March. That away success came despite a red card, and it followed other matches that also produced goals, including a 2-0 Open Cup win at Laredo Heat, a 3-0 victory at Monterey Bay FC, and a 2-2 draw with Colorado Springs. They have not been shut out in the recent sample, and their away results have generally carried enough attacking threat to keep scorelines moving.
The head-to-head record leans the same way for a goals angle, with six of the last seven meetings finishing above 2.5 goals and five of those seven seeing both teams score. New Mexico have also gone five straight without a clean sheet in the broader data, so even if they are expected to find the net at home, there is enough resistance to imagine El Paso contributing too. The only slight tension is that a 2-1 type of game is more central than explosive, but it still clears this line comfortably.
That fits the league context as well, because home matches in this competition average 1.90 goals and away matches 1.22, which leaves room for a straightforward two-goal return once both sides create decent chances. New Mexico’s latest xG line of 1.6 against Colorado Springs and the 1.8 to 1.0 projection here both sit comfortably above a one-goal floor, even if the matchup does not demand a huge score. With both sides regularly involved in open, end-to-end games, the lower goals line looks well protected.
My prediction is Over 1.5 Goals at 1/4. New Mexico have landed in high-scoring territory often enough, with four of their last five matches producing at least two goals, and El Paso have had a goal in each of their last four. The head-to-head data is even stronger for this market, with six of the last seven meetings going over 2.5 goals, which leaves Over 1.5 very safe. The projected 2-1 score also fits cleanly, even if it is less adventurous than the recent trend suggests.
