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Norrköping DFK come into Monday afternoon’s game after a narrow 1-0 defeat at AIK, with that latest outing producing just 0.7 xG and no big chances. Their league start is already under pressure, and the bigger issue for this pick is that they have only scored once across their opening league match while failing to find much rhythm in attack.
Malmo FF arrive in far better shape, having opened with a 3-0 win over IK Uppsala on 29 March and a strong 3.3 xG return. They have also kept things tidy at the back in both league games this season, allowing only 0.7 xGA in that most recent match and conceding just one goal across their first two league outings.
The away side also carry the stronger recent away pattern in this fixture. Malmo won 4-0 at Norrköping in November 2025, and their broader league form has been six wins in their last seven matches, which is a clear contrast to Norrköping’s mixed run of four wins and two losses. That earlier head-to-head is useful here because it shows Malmo can control this matchup even on the road.
There is a slight tension for an away-win call because Norrköping have at least shown they can nick results away from home, but their current home record is blank and their attacking numbers are modest. Malmo’s away record in the table is still small sample territory, yet their overall scoring form and the xG edge point in the same direction, while the recent 4-0 head-to-head adds another layer of comfort.
My prediction is Away Win at 7/10. Malmo FF have started with a 3-0 league victory and a clear xG advantage over IK Uppsala, they beat Norrköping 4-0 in the most recent meeting, and their current scoring run is far stronger than Norrköping’s. Norrköping’s latest home record is still empty, while Malmo’s recent results show consistent control at both ends of the pitch.
