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Patriotas Boyacá come into this with two home draws and two home wins in five league matches, and their 6-4 home goal difference is a solid base for a home success. They have also avoided defeat in three of their last four at home, while Leones FC have lost four of their last five away league games and have only four away goals in the division this season.
That away record matters because Leones have been easy to keep quiet on the road, scoring less than a goal per away match on average and failing to score in two of their last four away outings. Patriotas have been a little more reliable at home, with six goals scored and only four conceded in five, which fits a pattern where the hosts can control the result without needing a high-scoring game.
Recent form also points in Patriotas Boyacá’s direction. They are winless in five, but the underlying home split is still stronger than Leones FC’s away split, and Leones arrive on a six-match run without a win. The head-to-head record adds a small boost too, with Patriotas winning the most recent meeting 1-0 in September 2025.
There is a slight wrinkle in the projected 2-1 scoreline, because Patriotas have not been blowing teams away and Leones have shown enough to nick the occasional goal. Even so, the balance of home strength, Leones’ poor away form, and their tendency to concede first away from home still favours the hosts.
My prediction is Home Win at 9/20. Patriotas Boyacá are unbeaten in four of their last five home league matches, Leones FC have lost four of their last five away games, and Leones have gone six matches without a win overall. Patriotas also beat Leones 1-0 in the most recent head-to-head, which fits the home-side edge without requiring a dominant scoreline.
