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Real Sociedad B U21 come into this one after a heavy 5-1 defeat at Almería, which followed a 2-0 home loss to Granada and leaves them with just two wins in their last six league games. Even when they have picked up results, their matches have tended to swing around rather than stay controlled, with both of their most recent home outings producing exactly two or three goals.
Eibar have been steadier, but their recent run is not built on free-scoring games. They beat Las Palmas 3-1 and have five games unbeaten since their only loss in February, yet three of those five were decided by a single goal and one finished 0-0. That sort of pattern points more toward a cagey contest than an open one.
The home and away splits also lean toward a tighter away performance from Eibar. Real Sociedad B U21 have taken 26 points at home with a 25-20 goal record, while Eibar’s away numbers are far more modest at 8 goals scored and 19 conceded across 15 matches. Eibar’s away record of two wins, five draws and eight defeats suggests they are not usually dominant on their travels, even if they have recently found ways to avoid defeat.
There is some tension with the head-to-head history, because four of the last five meetings between these clubs have gone over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in four of the last five. Even so, the current matchup looks less explosive on paper than those past meetings, with Eibar’s away scoring return and the recent run of low-margin away wins pulling the total down.
My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 13/20. Eibar’s away record features only 8 goals scored in 15 league matches, and three of their last five games have finished with two goals or fewer. Real Sociedad B U21 have also had two of their last three league outings end under the line, and their home record is respectable without being especially high-scoring. The projected 1.0 to 1.3 xG split leaves room for a low total, even if the 1-2 correct-score lean sits slightly above the market line.
