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Salernitana arrive with mixed recent form, having taken three wins from their last six league games but also conceding five in the heavy defeat at Potenza. At home they are still respectable, with nine wins, six draws and only two losses, yet their 23 goals scored in 17 home matches point to a side that can be contained.
Benevento’s away record is the stronger argument here. They have won 10 of 17 on the road, lost only five, and have scored 31 away goals while conceding 14. Their recent league run has also been steady, with four wins, one draw and one loss across the last six, and that balance away from home gives them a clear edge against a Salernitana side that has just been hit for five.
The head-to-head record leans the same way. Benevento have no losses in their last six meetings with Salernitana, including a 5-1 win in the reverse fixture in December 2025. Salernitana have also failed to keep a clean sheet in seven straight derby meetings, which is a problem against a visitor that has scored in four of its last five league games.
The xG numbers do not shout a runaway away win, though they still support Benevento’s advantage. Salernitana’s latest home and away outputs have been uneven, while Benevento’s most recent match produced 2.8 xG and just 0.13 xGA against Cosenza, even if it ended 1-1. With Salernitana conceding five in their last outing and Benevento carrying the better away profile, the visitors look the more reliable side.
My prediction is Away Win at 11/10. Benevento have won 10 of their 17 away league matches, they are top of the table, and they have not lost any of the last six meetings with Salernitana. Salernitana’s recent 5-2 defeat at Potenza also raises questions about their defensive stability, while the reverse fixture finished 5-1 to Benevento.
