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Friday night in Serie A brings together two clubs with very different targets as Sassuolo host Como on 17 April. Fabio Grosso’s side sit 11th with 42 points, stuck in that awkward middle ground where survival is not the pressing fear but real upward momentum has been patchy all season. Como, under Cesc Fàbregas, arrive in fifth on 58 points and every game now carries weight in the race for Europe. They are close enough to dream, and good enough that it doesn’t feel fanciful.
That’s the big contrast here. Sassuolo are trying to finish with purpose and prove they can be more than a volatile mid-table team. Como are chasing something tangible. Their record says they deserve to be taken seriously too: 16 wins, only six defeats, and just 26 goals conceded across 32 league matches. That’s a proper top-end profile, not a flirtation.
There’s also recent history between them, and it doesn’t flatter the hosts. Como have already beaten Sassuolo twice this season, once in the league and once in the Coppa Italia. So this isn’t just about form or league position. There’s a pattern Sassuolo need to break. Right now, it’s hard to trust them to do it.
Sassuolo’s recent run has been one of those sequences that looks half-encouraging until you dig into it. They beat Atalanta 2-1 at home on 1 March, which felt like a statement result, then followed it with a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Bologna two weeks later. In between and after that, they’ve picked up a 1-1 draw away at Juventus and a 2-1 home win over Cagliari, results that keep you interested, but the losses have had a familiar shape. They were beaten 2-1 at Lazio, and last Sunday they lost 2-1 at Genoa despite the game being there for them.
That Genoa defeat summed them up. Sassuolo created enough to stay in the match, posting 1.23 xG from 15 shots, and they matched Genoa for big chances at 1-1. Yet they still lost, conceding late through Caleb Ekuban after Domenico Berardi’s red card at the end of the first half left them compromised. The margins were small. The habit is not. Sassuolo have now gone six matches without a clean sheet, and they’ve conceded first in each of their last five. Keep doing that against stronger sides and you’re asking for trouble.
At home, the record is middling rather than menacing: seven wins, two draws and seven defeats, with 19 scored and 22 conceded. That goal difference at their own ground tells its own story. They don’t dominate there, and they don’t shut games down either. Sassuolo have seen both teams score in five of their last six matches, and there’s been a loose, open feel to so much of their football. Entertaining? Yes. Reliable? Not really. The issue isn’t that they can’t create. It’s that they rarely control the rhythm for long enough. Against a disciplined away side, that can turn ugly quite quickly.
Como’s form is stronger, and the table reflects it. Their last six matches have included draws with Udinese and Inter, plus three league wins on the bounce before that against Pisa, Roma and Cagliari. The standout result in raw scoreline was the 5-0 demolition of Pisa on 22 March, but the 2-1 win over Roma carries more weight in this context. It showed they can absorb pressure and still strike with real quality. The 2-1 victory away at Cagliari matters too, because it reinforced that this team travels well.
Then there’s last weekend’s wild 4-3 home loss to Inter, a game that would usually leave a side with regrets and encouragement in equal measure. Como lost, yes, but they didn’t play like a team punching above their weight and hanging on. They produced 2.33 xG to Inter’s 0.88, had 24 shots to Inter’s seven, and still somehow came away empty-handed. That can happen against elite teams when finishing and game-state chaos take over. The bigger takeaway is this: Como can create against anyone.
Their away league record is one of the strongest in this fixture and one of the main reasons the visitors are favoured. Seven wins, five draws and only three defeats on the road, with 22 goals scored and just 11 conceded, is excellent. That defensive number stands out. It’s lean. It’s efficient. It gives them a platform even when they don’t start fast. You can also see why the projected xG leans their way here, with Como at 1.52 and Sassuolo down at 0.72. This isn’t a side scraping points by luck. They’ve built a season on structure and quality in both boxes.
One thing to watch is the reaction to that Inter loss. Some teams spiral after a game like that. I don’t think Como will. Fàbregas has them playing with enough conviction that a defeat full of chances should sharpen them rather than dent them. And against a Sassuolo side that keeps conceding first, you’d expect Como to back themselves to seize control.
Recent meetings are firmly in Como’s favour. They beat Sassuolo 2-0 in the reverse league fixture on 28 November 2025, and before that knocked them out of the Coppa Italia with a 3-0 win in September. Two games, two wins, five goals scored, none conceded. That’s not a coincidence anymore.
Mind you, head-to-head records can get overplayed. Still, when it aligns with the current table and the stronger defensive numbers, it becomes harder to dismiss. Sassuolo haven’t found a way through this Como side yet.
Away Win at 1.67 is the standout play here. Como are the better team in the table, the steadier team on the road, and the cleaner defensive side by a distance. Sassuolo’s habit of conceding first is a glaring problem against opponents who already took six points from them across two meetings this season. Add in the xG projection of 0.72 to 1.52 and the shape of the bet is clear enough.
The predicted scoreline is 0-2, and that feels about right. Como don’t need this to become a shootout. They just need to be themselves — organised, patient, and clinical when Sassuolo give them openings, which they usually do. The only tension is that Sassuolo games often produce goals at both ends, but Como’s away defence has been too strong to ignore. If you want a secondary angle, Como to win with under 3.5 goals has obvious appeal.
