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Sorrento head into this Monday afternoon fixture in poor overall shape, but their home numbers are more competitive than their league position suggests. They have taken 20 points from 16 home matches, with four wins and eight draws, and that level of resistance is exactly what a home-win case needs.
Team Altamura arrive with a mixed away profile: five wins, five draws and seven defeats on the road, but only 10 goals scored in those 17 away games. That low attacking return matters here, because a favourite on home soil does not need a huge target to justify a home result if the visitors often struggle to create much away from home.
Recent form leans towards Sorrento being easier to oppose than back, yet there are still a couple of useful clues for a home angle. They have gone six league games without a win, but the most recent outing at Casertana was a better performance than the scoreline suggests, while Team Altamura’s last away trip ended in a 2-1 defeat at Salernitana. The head-to-head also favours Sorrento at this venue, with a 2-1 home win in September 2024 and another 2-1 success away in November 2025.
The xG picture is not overwhelming either way, which is the only real wrinkle for a home-win pick. Sorrento’s latest match produced 1.4 xG to 0.6 xGA, and Team Altamura’s win over Siracusa came from just 0.4 xG, so neither side is arriving with a truly convincing attacking base. Even so, the home side’s steadier home record and Altamura’s limited away scoring output tilt the balance towards the hosts.
My prediction is Home Win at 11/10. Sorrento’s home record is solid enough with four wins and eight draws, Team Altamura have scored only 10 away goals all season, and the visitors have lost seven of their 17 away league matches. The recent head-to-heads also lean Sorrento’s way, including two 2-1 wins in this matchup.
