Manchester City come into this FA Cup tie with the cleaner recent case for a home result. They have two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six across all competitions, but the key point for a Home Win pick is that both victories came away from home and the latest was a strong 2-0 win over Arsenal on 22 March. Liverpool’s recent record is shakier, with two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six, and they arrive off a loss.
Liverpool are still dangerous enough to make this less straightforward than the price suggests. The xG projection of 1.9 to 1.5 and the 2-1 correct-score lean both point to a fairly narrow City edge rather than a dominant one, so the home side probably needs to win a competitive game rather than control it from start to finish. Liverpool’s last six also include a 4-0 win over Galatasaray and an FA Cup win at Wolves, so this is not a soft opponent.
The most recent performances give City the stronger push for the result market. Against Arsenal, City produced 2.3 xG to 1.1 xGA and created three big chances in a 2-0 win, with Nico O'Reilly scoring twice. Liverpool’s latest outing was a 2-1 defeat at Brighton, where they allowed 2.2 xGA and conceded five big chances, which is a worrying defensive return before facing this level of opposition.
There is also one recent head-to-head angle in City’s favour. They have already beaten Liverpool twice this season, winning 2-1 away on 8 February 2026 and 3-0 at home on 9 November 2025. That does not guarantee a repeat in a cup match, but it is relevant support when the market asks City to win outright.
My prediction is Home Win at 1.71. Manchester City have won the last two meetings with Liverpool, they come in off a 2-0 win over Arsenal with the stronger recent underlying numbers, and Liverpool have lost three of their last six matches. The away side also gave up 2.2 xGA and five big chances in their defeat to Brighton, which is the kind of defensive display that can punish an away win chance in this market.
