Both Teams To Score has a fair case because Union Berlin’s recent games have rarely stayed quiet at one end only. They have scored in four of their last six league matches, but they have also conceded in four of those six, and their season record of 31 goals scored and 46 allowed points toward a team that often gives opponents a route in.
The main concern for this market is St. Pauli’s attacking output. They have scored only 24 times in 27 league matches, failed to score in two of their last three, and their away return is just 10 goals in 14 trips. That is the obvious reason the 1-1 projection and away xG of 1.0 matter here rather than suggesting a higher-scoring game.
Even so, St. Pauli did score in their most recent match, the 1-2 home defeat to Freiburg on 22 March, and they created 1.4 xG with three big chances. Union’s latest outing was a 0-4 loss away to Bayern on 21 March, where they allowed 5.1 xGA and 10 big chances, so their defensive side of the bet is hard to trust.
One head-to-head angle also helps: five of the last seven meetings between these sides have gone over 2.5 goals. That does not prove both will score on Sunday afternoon, especially after Union won the reverse fixture 1-0 in November, but it does show this matchup has often produced enough goal volume for BTTS to stay live.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 2.10. Union have scored in four of their last six league games and conceded in four of those six, St. Pauli created 1.4 xG and scored against Freiburg in their last match, and Union’s defence was badly exposed by Bayern with 5.1 xGA conceded. The projected 1-1 score also fits this market directly.
