Athletic Club host Real Sociedad at San Mamés on Wednesday 11 February in the Copa del Rey, with the Basque rivals meeting in a knockout tie. Both are still in the competition and have already drawn 1–1 in LaLiga at the same ground on 1 February, so the tie is finely balanced. The match is a cup fixture, so league standings do not apply, but recent form and the head-to-head suggest a tight game with Real Sociedad likely to be backed to avoid defeat in ninety minutes.
Athletic come into the game on the back of a 4–2 home win over Levante in LaLiga on 8 February. They led 2–0 by the 34th minute, conceded twice to be pegged back to 2–2, then scored twice in the last minutes to seal the win. Before that they won 1–2 away at Valencia in the Copa del Rey on 4 February and drew 1–1 at home to Real Sociedad on 1 February. Earlier in the sequence they lost 2–3 at home to Sporting CP in the Champions League on 28 January and 2–1 away at Sevilla in LaLiga on 24 January. So in their last five they have two wins, one draw and two defeats, with the two most recent outings both wins.
Real Sociedad beat Elche 3–1 at home in LaLiga on 7 February, with the goals spread across the first half and a late fourth. They had won 2–3 away at Deportivo Alavés in the Copa del Rey on 4 February and drawn 1–1 at Athletic on 1 February. Before that they won 3–1 at home to Celta Vigo on 25 January and 2–1 at home to Barcelona on 18 January. That gives them four wins and one draw in their last five, with no defeat in that run under Pellegrino Matarazzo, who took over in December 2025.
The sides drew 1–1 at San Mamés in LaLiga on 1 February, the visitors leading until a late equaliser. In the previous league meeting at Bilbao, Athletic won 1–0. Historically the head-to-head is very even in wins, draws and goals, so another close encounter is in line with recent and long-term precedent.
My prediction is Double Chance X2 at 1.67. Real Sociedad have taken 13 points from their last five games and are unbeaten in that run, while Athletic have conceded two or more in three of their last five and needed a late surge to see off Levante. The xG projection (1.54–1.42) supports a 1–2 finish.
